No Way Out
Trump has trapped the US in Iran and the costs are rising
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Trump is a terrible poker player. When a well-planned operation is underway like the extraction of Maduro in Venezuela or last year’s bombing of Iran’s nuclear site, he’s completely silent.
When he has — in the ridiculous cliche of his administration — no cards, he’s over every news show and Truth Social blaring about civilisational destruction or carpet bombing or seizing control of an entire country.
The louder the threats, the less he can do about it.
Since the Iranian ceasefire that was not a ceasefire collapsed at the end of last week, all he’s done is muscle his way into Fox or NBC or CNN so he can thunder about how Iran is going to pay a price for not doing what he desperately needs them to do.
His latest flailing response is to announce that the US should now be known as The Guardian of the Strait of Hormuz as part of an unenforceable protection racket which will involve charging all ships passing through the waterway 20%.
Countries around the world will be laughing at him. Again. The level of desperation is soaring. But let’s take it at face value. If he’s ripping up the Laws of the Sea and discarding freedom of transit, the US Navy will have to become pirates, boarding and seizing any ship that refuses to pay protection.
The cost of oil will go up $15 a barrel. All other prices will rise as that 20% will be passed on to consumers. And other countries overseeing important maritime trade routes will be thinking, the rules don’t count any more — why not us? China in the South China Sea, Indonesia with the Malacca Strait, the British and French with the English Channel, the British, Spanish and Moroccans with the Strait of Gibraltar.
Ludicrous. In the fantasy in his head, he probably thinks he’s engaging in some tough negotiating tactic. What he doesn’t realise is that no one takes him seriously any more. Every time he launches into one of his wild plans he damages America’s standing across the globe a little bit more.
But there’s a reason why he’s firing off crazy notions on Truth Social — he’s desperate to be seen to be doing something, anything to maintain his manufactured reputation as a strongman because the world knows he’s lost the war with Iran and he now has no way out of the mess of his own making.
Iran is in a far stronger position than they were before he launched his illegal war on Israel’s behalf, with no planning, no strategic outcome, zero knowledge of a complex situation. Now, after the failure of his so-called “deal” — the unsustainable Memorandum of Understanding where he promised Iran everything they wanted —he’s left with two options.
Retreat and leave Iran in full control of the Strait of Hormuz and with the option of building a nuclear deterrent if they so wish. He could claim Mission Accomplished, but no one would believe him and psychologically he couldn’t cope with being framed as the biggest Presidential loser.
Or he could send in troops to try to conquer Iran and look at potentially thousands of American deaths.
Caught between two unacceptable choices, Trump — and by association the US — is in limbo. Trapped, neither in nor out while the military continues to run through operations that have been proven not to work, watching as the weapons stockpile dwindles to nothing, the financial costs spiral and more American soldiers risk getting killed.
Since Trump declared the ceasefire over, the US military has been in repeating pattern. In Bandar Abbas, Sirik, Qeshm Island and elsewhere, dozens of targets have been hit including air defence systems, radar installations, missile and drone launchers and “small boats”.
In response Iran has attacked US bases in Kuwait, Bahrain and Jordan and radar systems in Oman.
Trump roars on TV that Iran is being crushed and that he’s teaching them a lesson. Iran quietly gets on with replacing anything that has been damaged. It’s a pointless exercise, for show, because Trump can’t look weak. But he does. Because lashing out isn’t a sign of strength.
His dwindling band of MAGA supporters might not care that he’s said Iran’s military has been “entirely destroyed” so many times that everyone’s lost count, but the rest of the world thinks he’s a fool.
Even carrying on in this way isn’t an option. Munitions are being depleted at a much faster rate than they can be replaced. It could already take months if not years to get America back to a position of strength.
But for each day Trump is trapped in the Iranian mire, the costs mount at home.
The US Strategic Oil Reserves — the country’s giant emergency fuel supply — is now at its lowest level since 1983, less than half full and 20% down year on year. As of the beginning of this month it stands at a meagre 319 million barrels. That would last the US just 16 days.
Trump has been forced to release large amounts to control fuel prices (and they’re still soaring) and offset global shortages. It’s going to take years to get back to normal.
The longer Trump attempts to fight an unwinnable war for ego reasons, the more the oil supply is going to be constrained, the more prices will rise at the pumps, the more the reserves will be depleted as he releases more oil to stifle any political shock.
At the same time, food prices and the cost of other important purchases are going to continue to rise. Even if Trump did find some way to wriggle out, these things aren’t like turning on a tap. The misery continues for months.
Most Americans are aware that things have gotten worse under Trump — his approval ratings in nearly all areas are in the sewer. But in the middle of the chaos he causes, I’m not sure they have a clear picture of exactly how bad. He’s wrecked everything.
Should the next President be a Democrat, they will be left with carnage and, in the way of politics, they’ll be blamed for it by those who don’t see long-term cause and effect. They’ll spend their entire term trying to get things back on track.
The only way to mitigate against this is to get out of Iran. But Trump is paralysed and in the process he’s Making America Far Far Worse.
It is staggering to the rest of the world that any senior commanders in any of the USA forces ever thought that this stupidity could ever succeed. At every level it should have been obviously wrong and the whole of NATO member countries tried to tell him. The crisis was entirely created by the failure of the USA to understand the Middle Eastern situation.
Trump’s version of Putin’s three-day SMO is following the very same pattern of “Shock and Awe” into a multi-year engagement in a War (with a capital W). Worse still, is that I suspect that Iran is better prepared for it.