Trump In China

Beijing is winning and Trump is helping them

The fanfare will be huge when…if…Trump touches down in Beijing on Thursday for his much-heralded visit to China. Flag-waving crowds, motorcades, cameras, pomp and ceremony…all the empty spectacle Trump loves more than anything.

His fragile ego will be burnished and he’ll luxuriate in public attention while client journalists ask passive questions. So many Comfort Boxes will be ticked he’ll consider it a massive win for his reputation.

It won’t be. The trip will reveal very clearly, particularly to those countries in the Global South, how China is in the ascendance and Trump has brought America down.

Watch Beijing’s subtle shaping of the event unfold.

In one year, Trump has done more to destroy the US’ reputation than anyone thought possible. His erratic tariffs regime has alienated every continent. The Iran War, with its Trump-driven oil shock and disruption of the global economy, is currently driving real fury.

This is what will really be on display.

Trump has never met an authoritarian he doesn’t love and like the weakest bullied kid who wants to join the school bullies club to appear strong he comes cap in hand and reeking of desperation.

As with all these kinds of high-level visits, many deals will have been agreed in advance so both sides can plausibly claim success. Something on soybeans to placate US farmers who are being crushed by Trump’s policies. Jet engines, perhaps. Don’t expect anything substantial.

The main focus — both in China and across the world — will beTrump’s catastrophic handling of the Iran War which could still lead to an embarrassing postponement of the trip for a second time. While Trump will be desperately pressuring Xi Jinping to influence Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz rapidly, Xi will be in no hurry to help.

Half of China’s oil passes through the Strait and a third of its liquefied natural gas, but China is actually doing okay. It’s built up huge reserves in recent years, has a network of overland pipelines and has invested heavily in renewables. No pressure on them to move fast.

It’s the US that is suffering from this self-inflicted wound, with soaring gas and food prices putting a strain on America’s social fabric. Trump knows that, adding to his unpleasant odour of desperation.

A polite refusal of help from Beijing, in whatever diplomatic language it’s couched, will leave Trump dangling on the hook for the whole world to see.

Trump’s narcissism and stupidity will, of course, blind him to how this is perceived globally. In the foolishness of his American exceptionalism, he believes that it doesn’t matter what other countries think. Xi knows better.

Longstanding Gulf allies are already splintering with both Saudi Arabia and Kuwait this week refusing to allow the US to use their bases or airspace to police the Strait of Hormuz. This was a huge break and required some frantic backroom dealing by the US administration to get them to open up.

Even so, statements by Saudi Arabia showed a harsh change in mood. International relations require more than one partner, they said, with the implicit suggestion that they were already talking to others. And that other is China.

Meanwhile, countries in Africa and Asia see the threat of starvation among their poorest caused by Trump’s war. Trump has cancelled international aid, angering them further. One country is stepping in. China.

Where Trump makes an enemy, China sees a friend.

It’s unbelievable that a dictatorship with its own agenda could be seen as a more reliable partner than the US, but that’s how many countries across the world perceive it. Even in Europe, where nations contemptuously dismissed by Trump are now looking to the East.

The tragedy for Americans is that it takes decades to build a reputation and just as long to build reliable partnerships. Once they’ve been destroyed and new things have been put in place, they won’t return quickly, even with a Democrat in the White House.

Trump’s cold-shouldering of NATO is another huge strategic mistake. The US needs the alliance to counter Chinese influence in Europe where Beijing is looking for economic gains which will ultimately harm the US. America also needs NATO for traditional reasons, to expose Chinese intelligence operations in the EU.

Ceding its responsibilities at the power table makes the US look weaker to many nations and only emboldens China.

As Polish Defence Minister Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz said: “There is no NATO without the United States. There is also no power of the United States without its participation in NATO. This is a two-way relationship.”

Meanwhile, Trump plans to use his Beijing visit to get big, high-dollar investments in the US, going against a decades-long party consensus that Chinese investment is a threat to national security.

In January, Trump told the Detroit Economic Club “Let China come in” if they want to build cars on US soil. The response from Michigan Democratic Rep Debbie Dingell was: “We must not cede the American auto industry to a strategic competitor intent on global dominance.”

Trump, guided by profit and stupidity, won’t see the risks. China, of course, will love to get a larger economic foothold in America and the Beijing meeting, with Trump off-piste and freestyling as usual, will be the perfect place to achieve it.

Xi will manoeuvre Trump into the spotlight in Beijing because he knows that all his massive flaws will be on display to China’s new allies.

Any talk about the Iran War will remind the world that its Trump’s war.

Any discussion of tariffs will remind the world that they’re Trump’s tariffs.

By standing next to Trump, Xi will look like the adult in the room. Strong, reliable, a friend.

There’s a way to take off that sheen, by focusing on China’s treatment of the Uyghur Muslims, Tibetans or the brutal clampdown in Hong Kong. But Trump has no interest in human rights so there will be no pushback, leaving Xi’s reputation burnished.

When Trump gets off Airforce One in Beijing, the world will see him standing next to Xi. Both men will be smiling.

But every single person involved in shaping the world to come will know which is Master and which is Slave.