The World At War

NATO prepares for what’s to come

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Trump flew into Turkey on Tuesday for the NATO Summit in Ankara and immediately launched into his standard whine that he was “disappointed” with NATO for not supporting his illegal war in Iran.

While there was the usual lip service paid to him by officials, and despite what US media is reporting, Trump was very much a sideshow this time round. Power is draining away from him rapidly. He’s failed so many times that he’s seen as a joke around the world. And everyone there knows that all the serious people in the US military and intelligence communities realise America needs NATO just as much as NATO needs the US.

NATO has far more important things on its mind.

The Russia-Ukraine War is burning hot, the Middle East is blowing up in large and small ways, China is sabre-rattling around Taiwan, ISIS is growing in power in Africa, North Korea is testing missiles that could carry nukes to the US and fighting is continuing in several other places from the Sudan to Myanmar.

The world is at war and as America’s presence on the stage has diminished, by choice and by circumstance, military planners can see things getting worse.

Russia, increasingly desperate as it stares into the abyss of economic collapse, is acknowledged as a rapidly growing threat. A European intelligence report said Putin is considering a limited attack on a NATO member state — perhaps in the Baltics, perhaps Poland — to test the resolve of NATO to come to its aid.

As I wrote about recently, Russia has been at war with Europe for a long time, through sabotage, cyberattacks, drone incursions and espionage. Putin certainly couldn’t win a conventional war, but he could do a great deal of damage in the process of losing. European leaders recognise that.

Through his incompetence and corruption, Trump has undoubtedly made the world a far more dangerous place. His failed war against Iran has only made the theocracy stronger. Iran humbled the world’s most powerful military and now it’s preparing to flex its muscles both regionally and abroad through terrorism. Trump’s fawning Alaska Summit emboldened Putin and convinced him that the US would not interfere if he went all out against Ukraine or even if he challenged NATO states in Europe.

China felt the same after Trump’s bumbling visit to Beijing where he backed away from a longstanding US stance on Taiwan. And his uncritical support for Netanyahu has seen Israel lay waste to a huge swathe of the Middle East.

In his opening comments to all 32 leaders of the member states, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said: “We don’t have the luxury of time. We need the capabilities now to ensure we remain ready. Russia is putting almost half of its national budget into its war machine. Can you imagine? Almost 50% of what Russia spends is put into the war machine.

“Its defence industry is working around the clock. And not only the defence industry — also the rest of the industrial base in Russia is supporting the war effort.

“China continues to modernise its armed forces and expand its nuclear capabilities without transparency. North Korea continues to expand its nuclear program and supply to Russia. While recent action has significantly degraded Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs, we must remain vigilant.

“These countries are increasingly working together. And that should concern us all, because I assure you, they do not have our best interests in mind.”

In the shadow of war, the key topics for this summit were outlined well in advance: increased defence investment, a scaling up of defence production and long-term support for Ukraine against Russia.

In the spirit of the latter, Zelenskyy was given an early slot to address those attending. He said:“Ukraine belongs in NATO. Because NATO with Ukraine is the alliance for the future.” Adding, “We are now eliminating around 30,000 Russian soldiers every month. Just imagine that scale.

“In June alone, nearly 28,000 Russian soldiers were eliminated, and we have video confirmation for every single one of them. The overwhelming majority were struck by drones. And frankly, we take no pride in this. We are saying this to show what modern war looks like - a war we did not start, but one we are forced to fight.”

Later in his speech, Zelenskyy highlighted the next urgent steps. “The one thing we still need to do here in Europe is build a strong defence against Russia’s ballistic missiles. This is a big challenge. It’s true — this is Russia’s last major advantage. I believe Europe urgently needs its own capability to produce anti-ballistic systems and the missiles they require.

“We all value the Patriot system — it is an excellent system, and there are others as well. But today’s wars have shown that current Patriot production is not enough to meet the growing demand for protection against ballistic missiles.

“That is a fact, and we must respond to that fact.”

The global scale of what is going to be required was clear in that leaders plan to meet representatives of Middle East states, including the UAE, Kuwait, Qatar and Bahrain, as well as ministers from South Korea, Japan, Australia and New Zealand.

The approach was summed up by Canadian PM Mark Carney: “The assumptions that had shaped decades of Canadian defence and foreign policy have been upended. Put another way, history is back with a vengeance. We face numerous and growing threats, from incursions in our Arctic to attacks in our cyberspace.

“The nature of warfare is changing rapidly, driven by a proliferation of drones, autonomous systems, hypersonic missiles, to name a few.

“More menacingly, authoritarian regimes are increasingly assertive. The burdens within our traditional alliances are shifting, and middle powers such as Canada are seeking greater strategic autonomy through partnerships amongst the like-minded.

“We must meet both the realities of a changing climate and that new geopolitical landscape.”

The announcements came thick and fast. First up, the launch of the NATO Drone Edge Initiative. Allies are investing more than $40 billion in counter-drone capabilities over the next five years and committing to train five times as many drone operators in their armed forces by the end of 2027.

There was a snub for Boeing, as allies signed contracts to procure ten SAAB GlobalEye AEW&C aircraft. Contracts were also signed for Triton high-altitude long-endurance unmanned aircraft to strengthen NATO’s ISR force.

An announcement was made of the forthcoming delivery of the tenth Airbus A330 MRTT aircraft, one step closer to the full fleet of twelve. Overall, tens of billions of dollars of new contracts were announced at the Defence Industry Forum.

It was also significant that Ankara was hosting the summit. Turkey has now become a key element in NATO’s plans. Its geography, close to both Russia and overseeing the Middle East, is important, but it has a massive defence production industry and while most European countries downsized their armed forces after the Cold War, Turkey increased its active-duty professional military.

Rutte again: “Turkey has one of the biggest armed forces in NATO, well trained. Particularly in the last five to ten years, you have rapidly developed your defence industrial base. You now have about 3,000 companies turning out the defence industrial output that we need to defend ourselves.

“Ankara, Istanbul, Turkey as a whole, is really important. Your place on the map is important. Your leadership in NATO is important. The fact that you organised this summit in Ankara is evidence of that.”

This NATO Summit seems different, more focused, more aware of the acute problems facing it and what needs to be done to tackle them.

Thanks to Putin, Trump and Netanyahu, the world is in a dangerous place. The theme in Ankara is: it’s up to everyone else to find a way through.