The Iran Domino

Why Russia, China, the US and Israel are all piling on

2026 started with a cry of fury from the Iranian people. Decades of brutal repression, torture and execution by the theocratic regime was topped by a complete failure of governance over the last year that made lives all but impossible.

Drought has devastated the country and almost led to the evacuation of the capital Tehran. Food prices have risen by 70% in 12 months. Inflation stands at 40% and rising. The currency, the Rial, has hit an all-time low.

At the same time scarce public funds have been diverted into a nuclear weapons and missile program to threaten foreign enemies and into the funding of a widespread terrorist network, the regime’s real priorities.

Iranians finally had enough. They flooded on to the streets in mass protests, first in Tehran, but then spreading to all major cities. The protest is still growing. A national strike closed down the country and merchants shuttered their stores, silencing Tehran’s Grand Bazaar.

What started as an economic protest quickly spiralled into a demand for regime change. Opposition groups, including women and students, joined the fray. “Death to Khameini”, the Supreme Leader, became a regular chant, along with “This is the Year of Blood.”

The misery had grown too great. Something snapped. And this is what sets the current uprising apart from previous ones which were based around freedoms. For many citizens life has simply become unbearable.

On the surface it appears a peculiarly Iranian crisis. An oppressed people finally rising up.

But this has repercussions for the world.

Russian and Chinese military transport planes have been spotted landing in Tehran with the suspicion that weapons and resources are being supplied to put down the revolution. Trump chimed in with a barely literate threat to come to the “rescue” of the Iranian people if the regime uses violence against protesters

And Netanyahu’s government says the Iranian regime may use the revolution as cover for an attack on Israel, the kind of talk that is usually a pretext for preemptive action.

They all see that this is about more than freedom for the Iranian people.

For China and Russia, Iran has been a key partner in providing opposition to the West. The countries are knitted into a net of financial, trade and military support that is vital to undercut the dominance of the US and Europe. A new, democratic Iranian regime would not be friendly. That coalition would be badly weakened.

For the US, this weakening would be welcomed, both at a globally strategic level, but also as it would allow the extension of Trump’s Uber-Capitalism into an oil-rich nation that has the potential to be a regional power.

For Israel, the end of a potentially nuclear-armed rival would be a key strategic aim.

China, always terrified of any hint of a people’s revolution, does not want an example of a successful uprising for freedom, particularly among one of its close allies and another autocratic state.

Russia can’t afford to lose its final foothold in the Middle East. It’s still reeling from the overthrow of its close ally, the brutal dictator Assad in Syria. As Putin’s influence weakens, so does Russia’s soft power in other parts of the globe.

More than that, the loss of Iran would have a serious impact on Russia’s ability to wage war on Ukraine. While Russia has now developed its own drone factories, it would lose access to supplies of Iran’s Shahed drones, replacement components, wider technology and missiles.

A liberated Iran would escape sanctions and return to the global oil market, providing up to six million barrels per day. That would lower oil prices and increase pressure on Russia which is funding its war effort through its already degraded petrochemicals industry. China would also lose access to cheap Iranian oil.

There would be a peace dividend too. An Iran no longer attempting to be a nuclear threat would see the end of all sanctions and allow the resumption of trade that would ultimately benefit the Iranian people, raising living standards. And an Iran that no longer funds a global terrorist network would ease the pressure on western nations and allow a greater focus on other proliferating threats.

The stakes are high for those foreign powers happy to jump in to turn a crisis into a catastrophe. Opportunity and desperation drive their actions.

But the highest stakes lie with the courageous Iranian people calling for the overthrow of the regime. History tells us that they are all risking their lives. The regime cares nothing for its people. Any atrocity is justified to maintain its grip on power.

According to the Abdorrahman Boroumand Center’s monitoring, the execution rate in Iran has reached its highest level in thirty years and is more than twice that of last year. A sign of the regime’s abiding weakness.

Security forces have already opened fire on protesters, killing at least eight, including a fifteen-year-old boy. Women who have organised protests have been snatched from their homes and university dormitories, their whereabouts unknown.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is renowned for its brutality. Unlike the army, its sole purpose is to ensure the integrity of the Islamic Republic and it will go to any lengths to achieve that aim.

The Iranian people are fighting back. Molotov cocktails have been used to set fire to security forces attempting to kill protesters. Police stations, military headquarters and security vehicles have been burned.

But it’s an uphill struggle. The main problem facing the people’s revolt is that there is no obvious leader-in-waiting. The eldest son of the previous Shah, Reza Pahlavi, desperately wants to be that figure, but he’s loathed by many in the country.

Without any clear leadership, many citizens are adopting a watch-and-wait approach. They’re not going to put their lives on the line if the revolution fizzles out for lack of direction.

In my wildest fantasies, I imagine one of the leaders of the Women’s Revolt in 2022 stepping forward to become that unifying figure. A female leader of a new Iran would blow up the Middle East — in a good way.

It’s a New Year. New beginnings. We’re allowed our dreams.