China's vulnerability is not against direct American military engagement, it is the risk of an American blockade of Persian Gulf oil. The large reserves China built up in anticipation of such a move are being drawn down dramatically right now. If a carrier group in the eastern Indian Ocean began intercepting tankers headed for East Asia and then impounding the ones headed for China, China would be forced into drastic restrictions that would hobble its military and trash its civilian economy. They do not have the naval reach to sustain any action in the eastern Indian Ocean, so they could not stop such a blockade. Japan has the ships and the capacity to convoy its own tankers and Korea's around the second Island chain, where China also cannot reach. It would be a crushing blow to the CCP that would likely lead to riots and overthrow attempts and other internal chaos that the CCP cannot afford, and likely would not survive. And they know this.
Many thanks for this, and especially your original insight that trump's best hope for his own reputation is if he loses badly at the mid-terms.
Do you think he has the wit to realise that himself, and draw back on some of the (known as well as unknown to us) measures he has planned for subverting a fair and free election?
I love the bit about the Mid-Terms may save his bacon. Poetic Justice.
China's vulnerability is not against direct American military engagement, it is the risk of an American blockade of Persian Gulf oil. The large reserves China built up in anticipation of such a move are being drawn down dramatically right now. If a carrier group in the eastern Indian Ocean began intercepting tankers headed for East Asia and then impounding the ones headed for China, China would be forced into drastic restrictions that would hobble its military and trash its civilian economy. They do not have the naval reach to sustain any action in the eastern Indian Ocean, so they could not stop such a blockade. Japan has the ships and the capacity to convoy its own tankers and Korea's around the second Island chain, where China also cannot reach. It would be a crushing blow to the CCP that would likely lead to riots and overthrow attempts and other internal chaos that the CCP cannot afford, and likely would not survive. And they know this.
But would trump or hegseth know any of that? I’m sure hegseth wouldn’t.
Many thanks for this, and especially your original insight that trump's best hope for his own reputation is if he loses badly at the mid-terms.
Do you think he has the wit to realise that himself, and draw back on some of the (known as well as unknown to us) measures he has planned for subverting a fair and free election?
Unfortunately that sounds like too much thinking for Trump.
I have no faith that the midterms will change anything, even with a Dem rout. The USA is a pariah state now.