Iran War Update 8
Events from the last 24 hours
The US-Israeli attack on Iran is fast-moving and it’s not easy to stay on top of the volume of interconnected events. Here’s what happened in the last 24 hours…
In the run-up to his war, Trump ignored warnings that Iran could retaliate across the region and stop oil shipments, the NYT reports. He downplayed risks as a short-term concern that shouldn’t overshadow the mission to decapitate the regime. Now the energy markets are in chaos.
The White House still believes it can tolerate higher oil prices for about three to four weeks before they become a serious political problem, Politico reports.
The largest ever oil release from global strategic reserves was authorised in a desperate attempt to keep down prices.
Three cargo vessels were hit while attempting to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. One ship caught fire. Crews evacuated. Thai officials identified one vessel as the Mayuree Naree.
Iran says it will not allow even one litre of oil to pass through the Strait of Hormuz for the benefit of the US and its allies. “Oil prices cannot be kept low artificially.”
The war is failing. Not only was a hardline leader replaced by someone even more hardline, Trump is making the repressive Iranian regime richer. It’s now exporting more oil through the Strait of Hormuz than before the war, according to tanker-tracking firm Kpler.
Shell, TotalEnergies and other companies have declared force majeure to customers receiving LNG sourced from QatarEnergy which has halted production at its 77 mtpa LNG facility, Reuters reports.
After the oil shock, a global food shock. A third of the world’s fertiliser passes through the Strait of Hormuz.
A Washington Post investigation revealed the bombed Iranian girls school, where 175 mostly children died, was on the US target list and may have been mistaken for a military site.
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni: “I express firm condemnation of the massacre of little girls that occurred at the Minab school in southern Iran, solidarity with the families of the young victims, and request that the responsibilities for this tragedy be quickly established.”
Senator Lindsey Graham to Fox: “You worry about gas prices. Let me tell you what the world would be like if Iran had ten nuclear weapons. It would be miserable. They’d hold us all hostage and eventually they would destroy the state of Israel.”
Steve Bannon on The War Room: “Lindsey Graham should be registered as a foreign agent for the Netanyahu government.”
CNN confirmed earlier reports that Moscow is giving Iran specific advice on drone tactics to hit US and Gulf nation targets in the Middle East.
Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, and Standard Chartered have told staff to leave their Dubai offices and work remotely with Iran threatening attacks on banks and financial institutions in the Gulf.
US authorities are increasingly worried about terrorist attacks at home. A memo has been circulated about a potential Iranian drone attack on California.