Iran War Update 5

Events from the last 24 hours

The US-Israeli attack on Iran is fast-moving and it’s not easy to stay on top of the volume of interconnected events. Here’s what happened in the last 24 hours…

• Trump’s massive miscalculation on Iran is going to hit hard. The NYT spoke to US officials who say Iran is fighting back more effectively than the Trump administration expected, with stronger military capability and continuing attacks on US targets. More American casualties are likely, they say.

• Mojtaba Khamenei was announced as Iran’s Supreme leader. Israel said it would continue targeting every potential successor to Iran’s Khamenei, including “any individuals or bodies attempting to appoint or install a new leader for the Islamic Republic”.

• The US is considering the seizure of Kharg Island, Iran’s main oil export terminal, Axios reports.

• In Isfahan, Revolutionary Guard Corps headquarters, police command, and Basij centers were hit in Shahin Shahr, Fooladshahr, and Najafabad. In Bushehr, there was heavy bombardment of air and naval bases and military centres.

• Black rain has fallen over Tehran after strikes on oil facilities, coating streets and rooftops in dark, oily water. “The rain is actually apparently saturated with oil,” CNN reports. Now imagine people’s lungs.

  

• White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt told Fox soaring gas prices are “a short-term disruption for the long-term gain.” Crude oil reached $100 a barrel for the first time since 2022. Gamblers on Polymarket believed there is a 40% chance of recession before year end.

  

• Senator Lindsey Graham told Fox: “Just wait and see what happens in the next two weeks — truly, the next two weeks. We’re going to blow the hell out of these people. This regime is on death row. Now it’s going to be on its knees. It’s going to fall. We’re going to have prosperity unlike anything anyone could imagine.”

• Independent investigators Bellingcat uncovered video footage of US Tomahawk missiles hitting Minab, Iran, close to the girls’ school where 175 were killed in a missile strike. This directly contradicts Trump’s claims that Iran bombed the area.

• The UAE Ministry of Defence says it detected 17 ballistic missiles, intercepting 16 of them, and 117 drones, intercepting 113, while four fell into the sea.

• A Texas business which makes bomb shelters for nuclear war has seen trade skyrocket this week, Raw Story reports. Recent clients include two members of the Trump administration. The others were almost all “Christian, conservative CEOs,” which included “several of the wealthiest men on the planet.”