Iran War Update 4

Events from the last 24 hours

The US-Israeli attack on Iran is fast-moving and it’s not easy to stay on top of the volume of interconnected events. Here’s what happened in the last 24 hours…

• We seem to have settled on a figure for the direct cost to the US of the Iran War - $1 billion a day (though some analysts think it might be as high as $2 billion). That figure doesn’t include * the cost to US businesses from soaring energy prices which could hit jobs and * the warflation that consumers will soon be seeing at the checkout and gas pump.

• Qatar’s Energy Minister Saad al-Kaabi said the Iran war could “bring down the economies of the world”. He predicted that all Gulf energy exporters would shut down production within weeks and drive oil to $150 a barrel. He told the FT that even if the war ended immediately it would take Qatar “weeks to months” to return to a normal cycle of deliveries of liquefied natural gas.

• No oil tankers have passed through the Strait of Hormuz in 24 hours.

• Russia is now providing Iran with intelligence to attack US forces, several media outlets reported based on briefings from US officials. White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt said on Fox it “didn’t matter”. Trump castigated a reporter for asking him about it.

• UK counterterrorism police have arrested one Iranian and three dual British-Iranian nationals on suspicion of spying for Iran. They allegedly carried out surveillance of the Jewish community.

• Israel carried out a “broad-scale wave” of strikes on Lebanon’s capital Beirut while the IDF also launched its 14th wave of attacks on Iran.

• Trump said there would be no deal with Iran. He would only accept “unconditional surrender”. Which would be remarkable without ground troops.

• Secretary of State Marco Rubio told Arab Foreign Ministers the war could last several more weeks, Axios reports.

• The cancellation of an army exercise involving the 82nd Airborne has raised speculation about Middle East troop deployment.

• US Intelligence believes China could be preparing to provide Iran with financial assistance, spare parts, and missile components, CNN reports.

• An Iranian ballistic missile hit Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia.

• US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Fox: “Due to the temporary global oil gap, we may also unsanction other Russian oil.”