Iran War Update 13

Trump's war has been a disaster on every front

It’s been a few weeks since I did an update on Trump’s illegal war, but it felt like a good time to examine where we are right now because:

• Trump’s three-day war has just moved into its fourth month. The consequences of that are huge and growing.

• The announced ceasefire is nothing of the kind. Since it began, the US has carried out three strikes on Iran which it describes as “self-defence”.

• Over the last three weeks there have been several announcements from Trump either in person or anonymously though his favoured media outlet that a deal to end the war is “imminent”. An Iranian government spokesperson through the Revolutionary Guard-linked Fars News Agency said: “Trump is misrepresenting the Iran deal terms. He claimed Iran agreed to open the Strait of Hormuz for free and dismantle its nuclear materials — neither is in the actual text. The US must immediately unblock $12 billion in Iranian assets before talks can proceed, and a full ceasefire in Lebanon (on Hezbollah’s terms) is also required. The deal is still awaiting final approval in Iran. Informed sources describe Trump’s statements as a mix of truth and fabrication — an attempt to claim a premature victory.”

• The US has been covering up the scale of its losses. A BBC analysis of satellite imagery has revealed that 20 US military sites were hit by Iran.

• Trump’s desperation to claim victory to maintain his reputation as a strongman is only getting worse. The rest of the world sees it as a US defeat, entirely self-inflicted through incompetence. To that end, Ebrahim Azizi, chair of Iran’s National Security and Foreign Policy Committee: “Trump needs to understand, Iran, as the winner on the ground, is the one who sets the terms.”

• That desperation to bolster his image has led Trump to rush towards a deal that is worse than the one Obama negotiated and which will leave Iran strengthened. The NYT reports that he has offered Iran a £300 billion reconstruction fund which is being called an “international investment fund” to be facilitated by the US. The murderous Iranian regime — which slaughtered 32,000 of its own people in the recent protests — was on the brink of economic collapse before Trump launched his war.

• The NYT also reported Iran has rejected US demands to surrender its enriched uranium stockpiles.

• Secretary of War/Defense Pete Hegseth admitted on CSPAN: “Any deal will be a good deal.” Trump needs to get out of a mess of his own making, but he’s not psychologically capable of dealing with the humiliation of retreat.

• Iranian strategist Mehdi Kharratiyan on state TV: “Iran cannot return to its pre-war policy and talk of a fatwa banning the production of nuclear weapons. We need to prepare to become a nuclear power. We need to expand bilateral and trilateral relations with Russia and China. Another Trump victory.

• Meanwhile Netanyahu continues to toss wrenches into the works. He doesn’t want any peace deal until Iran is destroyed and he certainly doesn’t want any limitation of his attacks on Lebanon. Iran’s Foreign Ministry Spokesperson: “The other side keeps shifting its demands and sending contradictory messages which is dragging out negotiations. Israel’s escalation in Lebanon is aimed at destroying any chance diplomacy could work. The US and Israel cannot be seen as separate.”

• The consequences for the US and the world continue to rise. There is no agreed figure for US military deaths as the administration continues to hide information. Some accounts suggest 13 to 15, although there are claims of much higher figures — hundreds. Some of these come from Iranian sources so your judgment is required as to the validity. The war has caused thousands of deaths overall, in Iran, Lebanon and across the region.

• The war acts like a tax on the global economy. Oil prices fluctuate but remain high and consumers will be paying the price for this for many months to come. It’s unlikely oil prices will return to pre-war levels. Prices at the checkout will also continue to soar throughout the rest of the year. The OECD projects US inflation could reach 4% this year because of the conflict.

• Higher energy costs are dragging down economic growth. US GDP has softened with expectations of further pressure. There’s a danger of stagflation in the UK and Europe — low growth and higher inflation. If oil spikes higher — say $140 — some parts of the global economy could tip into recession.

• The world was looking at lowering interest rates before the war. Now the central banks — the Fed, the Bank of England and the ECB — are holding them steady.

• In the UK, house prices have dipped and consumer spending is weakening.

• On every front, Trump’s war has been a disaster.