Iran War Update 12

Events from the last 24 hours

The US-Israeli attack on Iran is fast-moving and it’s not easy to stay on top of the volume of interconnected events. Here’s what happened in the last 24 hours…

• Trump continues to insist negotiations with Iran to end the war are taking place. Iran continues to deny. It’s entirely possible both are right. The Iranian regime has several factions and some initial backchannel discussions could be underway with one or the other. It’s unlikely that any of those factions have the power to reach a binding agreement on their own, however. But Trump is clutching at straws in his desperation to end the war and prevent the potentially devastating economic fallout hitting the homeland.

• That Trump desperation is clear in the leaked 15-point peace proposal which included some big concessions to Iran: American assistance in developing a civilian nuclear project in Bushehr for electricity production; Removal of all sanctions; Removal of the threat of renewing sanctions.

• The former head of MI6 Alex Younger says Iran has the upper hand in any war negotiations.

• Ebrahim Zolfagharihas, spokesperson for Iran’s military command Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters, said in a video message to “the self-proclaimed global superpower” - “do not call your defeat an agreement”. He added that Iran had rejected Trump’s plan: “Our position has not changed from day one and will not change. We will never reach an agreement with people like you, not now and not ever. What you called strategic power has become strategic failure.”

• A ground war seems inevitable. Trump continues to redeploy troops to the region. WSJ reporter Alex Ward spoke to several senior Republicans, including the chairs of House and Senate Armed Forces who told him that a ground operation is planned and could be underway soon.

• Iran has reinforced its oil facility Kharg Island with troops, air defences, and mines in preparation for a US ground operation, CNN reports. US officials warned of heavy casualties due to layered defences and recent deployments of Iranian MANPADs and anti-armour mines.

• Russia is evacuating remaining staff from Iran’s Bushehr nuclear power plant where the situation is developing along a “worst-case scenario” after a US-Israeli strike near the facility, Alexei Likhachev, the head of Rosatom said.

• Meanwhile, the rest of the world continues to shift away from the US. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s national security adviser Jonathan Powell has been in talks with Wang Yi, China’s foreign minister, discussing the need to “deepen co-operation in all fields and to effectively manage disputes”. The sensitive nature of the discussions is shown in that they were not announced by the UK government, only revealed by the Chinese state broadcaster.

• According to a study by the Royal United Services Institute, the US-Israel coalition is burning through munitions at a financially and industrially unsustainable rate. The real danger is not just how much has been spent, but how hard it will be to replace. $26B worth of munitions in 16 days, $50B to replenish in a year.

• The Iranian regime is threatening to invade UAE and Bahrain if the US sends in ground troops: “If the United States makes a mistake, Iran’s armed forces are ready to seize the coastlines of the UAE and Bahrain and reshape the region.”

• Who are the winners and losers of Trump and Netanyahu’s war? Crude oil exports during the first 23 days of March 2026 vs first 23 days of February 2026:

• - Kuwait: -72%

• - Iran: +4%

• - Iraq (North): -49%

• - Iraq (South): -76%

• - Oman: +7%

• - Russia: +14%

• - Saudi Arabia: -52%