Iran Seizes Control

Trump faces a growing crisis

The situation in the Middle East is changing fast.

• Overnight and for no obvious reason, Iran decided to break the unannounced ceasefire and launch ballistic missiles at US bases in Jordan. It was a message to America that they now have the upper hand. The revelation that the US military is warning against any major attack on Iran because munitions stockpiles have recklessly been depleted to dangerous levels has changed all calculations.

• Iran feels it can strike with impunity. The US is so low on interceptors military chiefs are opting to block only attacks that target US troops, leaving runways, radar and other systems vulnerable. Iran has no shortages. They’ve been building their missile and drone stocks back up during the ceasefire and today Reuters revealed that the Chinese will be supplying a first shipment of 400 missile systems within weeks.

• The Iranian attack on the Jordan bases began around 5.45 ET. The US responded with interceptors which suggests troops were targeted, an undoubted Iranian ploy to deplete those stocks even further.

  

• CENTCOM said: “At 5:45 pm ET Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps forces launched multiple ballistic missiles from Iran in an attempted surprise attack on US forces based in the Middle East. All Iranian missiles were successfully intercepted. US forces remain vigilant and at a high state of readiness.”

• However, there are photos of what appears to be a direct hit on Muwaffaq Al Salti air base. Iran’s Tasnim News dismisses CENTCOM’s claim that all Iranian missiles were intercepted, saying it’s a “repeated false narrative”. Previous US interception statements were later contradicted by satellite imagery and reported military casualties, Tasnim says. This is true.

  

• There’s no doubt that the massive failings of the campaign by Trump and Secretary of War/Defense Pete Hegseth has emboldened Iran.

  

• Oil prices immediately spiked, adding to Trump’s domestic pressure.

  

• Today a senior Iranian official told Reuters: “Iran insists that the entire transit route through the Strait of Hormuz must be under its control. Only we and Oman can decide on arrangements in the Strait of Hormuz and we reject any interference from other countries.”

• Unless he chooses to ignore the military’s warnings and empty out the key missile stockpiles, Trump has run out of options. His own generals warned him at the weekend that the recent bombing raids on Iran’s military infrastructure were no longer having an effect.

• The fundamental weakness of the US was revealed in its response to the Iranian attack on the Jordanian bases. Instead of striking Iran, the US instead chose to join with Saudi Arabia and hit an Iranian-backed militia in Iraq.

• It’s hard to imagine a worse-planned war by a major power. Only Russia’s attack on Ukraine comes close. Trump is now pinning all his hopes on negotiations to give him an opportunity to retreat. Yet as last night’s attack showed, this is as incompetent an approach as all the others. As all world governments knew before Trump launched his illegal war, there are two factions in Iran. The US can talk to the politicians as much as it wants, but there is no political control over the fanatical Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps which will carry on doing exactly as it pleases.

• Regional tensions continue to rise. Iraq’s Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba warns it won’t let US or Saudi forces “desecrate Iraqi soil without paying a heavy price.”

• It can’t be stated enough that all of this was completely unnecessary. A poorly planned war by an administration that had no idea what it was doing has now led the US — and the world — to a dangerous place.

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