Greenland Next?

Trump won’t stop until he’s stopped

Alarm bells are sounding across Europe. A US oil company with close ties to Trump is preparing to drill in Greenland without permission. That’s one step away from a conflict between the EU and America.

There’s anger but no surprise. Trump posted his menacing image on Truth Social two days after the Texas company Greenland Energy landed six containers in eastern Greenland in preparation for drilling two exploratory wells to locate the country’s rich oil reserves.

Trump’s clear message: I dare you to stop us.

This has been his position throughout his second term — laws don’t count, the Constitution doesn’t count, I do what I want and it’s up to you to prevent me.

In the case of Greenland, however, the stakes are far, far higher.

From the beginning of his second term, Trump has insisted that Greenland must become a part of the US. His excuse: to prevent Chinese and Russian interference in northern waters. The truth: Greenland’s vast, valuable natural resources, including rare earth minerals, become easier to extract in a warming world.

One of the directors of Greenland Energy is a US Navy vet who is working on Trump’s “Golden Dome” missile defence scheme. Trump has said controlling Greenland is “vital” to the “Golden Dome”.

Former merchant Banker Larry Swets is the company chair and has access to Trump’s circle. And the company has also hired Right Wing former chat show host “Dr Phil” McGraw to make a documentary that will capture “these modern day wildcatters”, a term that gives a romantic view of American desperados.

A company representative falsely claimed in June that it had permission to start drilling. Swets later said: “Our enthusiasm for the project led us to communicate in a way that created confusion.” You don’t need me to translate that bullshit.

Greenland Energy says drilling of the wells will begin in October. A ship carrying 300 containers of drilling equipment will set sail from Canada on September 12.

Louisiana’s Far Right Governor Jeff Landry who is serving as Trump’s envoy to Greenland said the country could be “pumping oil by next year”.

Greenland’s government isn’t taking it lying down. “In the current situation, I do not believe it is realistic for the company to carry out drilling work this autumn,” Greenlandic Minister for Foreign Affairs and Natural Resources, Múte B. Egede said.

He added that another breach could result in tougher sanctions, including restrictions, fines or, in the most serious circumstances, the withdrawal of licences.

The Trump administration’s calculation is a familiar one: that in the face of bullying the weaker party will back down. That may ultimately be true.

The Greenland government has said it “would not be proportionate to demand the equipment be removed” and that the application for permission was still being processed…even though the site is in a conservation area and Greenland stopped issuing new oil licences in 2021 on environmental grounds.

While Swets said the company’s move “is not related to American annexation” any student of history will know this is a familiar tactic to create a casus belli, a justification for military action. In 1982, Argentina landed scrap metal dealers on the British dependency South Georgia Island as a catalyst for the Falklands War.

After the US’ humiliating defeat in Iran, Trump desperately needs something big to show he’s not a total loser and he’s prepared to do anything, burn down any alliance, to achieve it.

For a while it seemed like Cuba would be the country to pay the price for America electing a leader with a fragile psychology. Greenland is easier. It has a population of just 55,600, around the same size as Weymouth, Massachusetts. The EU is a long way away. Greenland is an autonomous territory of Denmark, an EU member.

Any attack on Greenland is an attack on the EU.

All it would take is to provoke a confrontation with the oil drillers which would be escalated into a violent one. That would give Trump an excuse to send in troops to protect American citizens and then to annexe Greenland.

It would be so shocking it’s easy to dismiss it. If you do you haven’t been paying attention. Trump is capable of anything — literally anything — where his reputation and legacy is at stake. He wants to be remembered as the President that expanded America’s power in the world.

Sending troops into Venezuela to extract its president was shocking. No one did anything.

Blockading Cuba and making it clear that soon it will be taken over is shocking. Again, no one has done anything.

The war in Iran is illegal. America’s famous checks and balances have not prevented it.

Trump doesn’t care. He’s a dying man who’s going to keep rolling the dice and if he doesn’t win he’ll steal the chips.

Only the EU can stand up to Trump here. But it’s worried about economies, trade, the effect on jobs of any dispute. It’s worried that any split with the US will leave an opening for Putin in Europe.

Trump knows this. He also knows weakness is a green light to keep plundering more. Sooner or later bullies need a punch in the face. Now is the time.